On April 23rd, the domestic steel spot market rose slightly, while the main varieties in the futures market all rose. Among them, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil increased by nearly 1.5%, iron ore and coking coal rose by more than 2%, and coke performed strongly, rising by more than 3%. The market rebound was mainly due to Trump’s easing of tariffs on China, stating that he would significantly reduce the previously high tariff level of 145%, which drove up market risk appetite and led to a collective rise in black series commodities. The raw material and fuel sector saw a rebound in iron ore prices from a low level, supported by the demand for steel mills to replenish inventories before the May Day holiday. Coke prices were boosted by expectations of a second round of price hikes. Against the backdrop of easing overseas trade frictions and domestic supply and demand games, steel prices may fluctuate and strengthen in the short term. However, the sustainability still needs to be observed based on the follow-up of demand and the implementation of policies. 01 #

IMF cuts global growth forecast, warning of trade war risks ‌ The IMF’S latest report has lowered global growth forecast, warning of a “new trade war” that could be triggered by escalating trade frictions and escalating geopolitical tensions, further undermining supply chain stability and cross-border investment confidence. The report points out that if tariff barriers among major economies expand, the global GDP growth rate may be further dragged down by an additional 0.5 to 1 percentage point, with emerging markets bearing the brunt. At present, market concerns over the absence of policy coordination and the resurgence of protectionism are on the rise, and the volatility of risky assets may continue to increase. US President Trump said on Tuesday local time that the current tariffs on Chinese exports are “too high” and he expects the rates to be significantly reduced. On Tuesday, US President Trump publicly stated that the current tariff level on Chinese goods is “too high” and said that if he returns to power, he will push for a “significant reduction in rates”. This statement has sparked market speculation that the tariff game between China and the United States will ease. However, analysts point out that its policy expression needs to be dynamically evaluated in combination with the election cycle, and the extent, timing and implementation possibility of tariff adjustments still have uncertainties. It is necessary to be vigilant about the gap between “expectation management” and actual policies. At present, the additional tariffs imposed by the United States on China involve more than 300 billion US dollars worth of goods. If the tariff rate is adjusted, it may temporarily ease the cost pressure on the global supply chain. However, medium – and long-term trade policies are still constrained by geopolitical games. Ministry of Ecology and Environment: Ensure the healthy and orderly development of the carbon emissions trading market ‌ Ministry of Ecology and Environment clarified the path for the construction of the national carbon market by 2025 on April 23: The “Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Relevant Work of the National Carbon Emission Trading Market in 2025” was issued, requiring units in the four major industries of power generation, steel, cement and aluminum smelting with an annual direct emission of 26,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent to be included in the list of key emission units of the national carbon market and subject to unified management throughout the entire process (the list is formulated by industry and local counterparts withdraw). Avoid duplicate control of local and national markets. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will strengthen the implementation of responsibilities by provincial departments, conduct comprehensive policy training for newly included enterprises, and simultaneously intensify the crackdown on data fraud to ensure the orderly operation of the carbon market through “strict supervision”. This move marks the entry of the national carbon market expansion into the practical operation stage, aiming to promote the low-carbon transformation of key industries through rigid constraints and precise control.